An EPIC response to the current avian influenza outbreak
KEY MESSAGES
- Avian influenza (bird flu) is a viral disease, and the high pathogenic strains can cause severe disease or death in some poultry and wild bird species.
- As a Notifiable Animal Disease, it must be reported immediately to authorities.
- Discover how EPIC’s contributes to our understanding of Avian Influenza with veterinary risk assessments, interactive dashboards, gene evolutionary studies and mathematical modelling.
Since the end of 2021, a highly infectious strain of avian influenza virus (H5N1) has caused multiple outbreaks in domestic poultry and wild birds across Scotland, in other parts of the UK, and internationally.
This highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus causes more severe disease and higher mortality than other strains of bird flu. The impact of the disease, directly through illness and death, and indirectly from interventions to control the disease, has huge implications for the poultry sector, the economy, and wider society.
Scientists within the Scottish Government-funded Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks (EPIC) have been working with government policy teams and the poultry industry to predict the spread of the disease and prioritise control strategies.
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Exploring EPIC’s Impact: Tackling Avian Influenza
Veterinary Risk Assessments: evaluating risks and challenges
EPIC’s researchers have produced a risk assessment for the Scottish Government which considers the removal of bird carcasses as a mitigation strategy to reduce onward transmission of the virus to wild birds, other wildlife and captive birds. The current risk assessment is available online and is updated as new evidence becomes available.
Interactive dashboard: predicting the transmission
EPIC has developed an interactive avian influenza (AI) webtool to (i) support information sharing and decision-making within and outside EPIC, (ii) facilitate communication with policymakers and (iii) remove accessibility barriers as it can be easily shared and opened in a browser. The dashboard maps observed outbreaks in poultry/(non-) avian wildlife, visualises epidemic curves, and allows filtering/downloading of data. Currently, the data is used to determine hotspots of outbreaks in space and time, to generate relative risk maps to predict patterns of AIV transmission, and to support focussed preventative and control measures.
Figure 1. EXAMPLE WILD BIRD AND POULTRY HPAI INTERACTIVE MAP
Phylogenetics: the evolution of infectious diseases
To further investigate and track highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses as they come into the UK and Scotland, EPIC uses viral sequence data combined with spatial data. By analysing mutations in the genome of the pathogen, we can track how the pathogen moves between regions, between species, or even between individual farms or animals. The avian influenza virus has a segmented genome; combining data on the genetics of the avian influenza virus and patterns of disease occurrence to track the evolution of the outbreak strain, EPIC seeks to understand changes across space and time, and estimate the speed of spread. This information is then used to enhance the outbreak hotspot risk map and AIV transmission predictions.
Figure 2. A Global Picture of H5N1 Variants
Mathematical modelling: understanding the disease spread
Developed new mathematical models to better reflect how the disease spreads in wild birds to predict risks for poultry farms.