Modelling Bluetongue spread: How the environment influences spread

Paul Bessell

Paul Bessell from The Roslin Institute presented an interactive webinar as part of the EuFMD modelling network.

In temperate and Palearctic regions the spread of vector borne diseases is limited by the temperature. This operates in two principal ways - by limiting the duration of the period during which the vector is active and by defining the dynamics of the vector's infection. North west Europe has experienced multiple incursions of Bluetongue (BT) and there is an ongoing outbreak in France but the climate of Scotland places it on the margins of areas where BT can spread.

This talk takes published mathematical modelling research on the dynamics of these different disease spread parameters to explore how they determine the potential for spread and conditions necessary for disease spread in Scotland. I combine this with some ongoing research on how movement controls will or will not have an impact on disease spread in this context. I explore R0 in this context and give a cautionary note on how it can be misleading.

The presentation has been kindly shared by EuFMD, European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

You can also access this and other webinars by joining the EuFMD Modelling Network  

Find out more about EuFMD here


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