Risk assessments

Veterinary Risk Assessments (VRAs) are tools developed to objectively assess the likelihood of an event happening, and its potential impact. EPIC develops risk assessments for two main purposes: to assess the risk of a disease entering or spreading in Scotland; and to assess the risk of particular activity such as movement of animals affecting disease spread.

Risk of a disease entering or spreading in Scotland

Risk assessments have been produced to assess the risk of Schmallenberg Virus, Bluetongue Virus, Avian Influenza and Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea entering and spreading in Scotland.

Risk of particular activities affecting disease spread 

EPIC scientists have created a generic veterinary risk assessment template to improve long-term contingency planning for different exotic diseases. EPIC produces risk assessments both in peace-time as part of contingency planning activities, and as required in disease outbreak situations to provide government with rapid risk assessments. EPIC has produced a library of veterinary risk assessments for use during a foot and mouth disease outbreak.

Foot and Mouth Disease veterinary risk assessments

Phase 1 Licences

Phase 1 general movement licences allow priority movements immediately and are issued only for movements which meet the conditions specified under the emergency disease restrictions. It is likely that very few movements and activities will be permitted until there is a greater understanding of where the disease originated and where it has spread to. Once the prevalence of the disease is clearer and approximately eight days have elapsed since new Infected Premises (IPs) have been identified it may be possible to move onto the release of phase 2 licences.

Phase 2 Licences

Once phase 2 commences there will be an extension to the range of movements considered. However, movements will only be licenced in accordance with legislation, which can be species specific. The moves identified as permitted under phase 2 licences are priority activities that would be required immediately once phase 2 commences, however additional moves may be considered where appropriate.

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