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Dr Thibaud Porphyre

I am an ecologist trained in quantitative veterinary epidemiology. My research is focused on creating epidemiological information that can be used in the development and design of control and surveillance strategies against zoonotic and/or emerging pathogens circulating in vector and animal (livestock or wildlife) populations. This effort has centred on:

  • Analysing data issue from surveillance activities to identify spatial patterns and factors involved in disease transmission dynamics
  • Developing epidemiological and population dynamics models as a basis for stratifying (in terms of space and/or time) surveillance activities, quantitatively assessing the efficiency of control strategies, identifying biological and ecological key processes.

I previously worked at Massey University (New Zealand), at CIRAD/INRA in the Caribbean and at the Royal Veterinary College of London, where I developed various statistical and simulation models to better understand the ecology and epidemiology of various pathogen, vector species and disease reservoir species. I started at the University of Edinburgh in October 2011 and am a research fellow with EPIC. My work within EPIC is primarily in the evaluation of potential disease control strategies and policies for use in the event of an outbreak of an exotic animal disease like FMD or classical swine fever. I am currently a Co-coordinator of Topic 4 `Analyses of Potential Disease Control Options`.

I am also involved in numerous national and international collaborations, particularly working on developing models to inform control and preventive activities against disease such as African swine fever and dengue in Africa and South-east Asia, and highly pathogenic avian influenza in the USA.

I received a Master in Biological Modelling from Joseph Fournier University, Grenoble (France), a Post-Graduate Diploma in Preventive Veterinary Medicine and a PhD in Epidemiology from the Institute of Veterinary, Animal and Biomedical Sciences of Massey University (New Zealand).

Publications

Using machine learning improves predictions of herd-level bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain K. Stański, S. Lycett, T. Porphyre & B. M. de C. Bronsvoort

Post-outbreak African horse sickness surveillance: A scenario tree evaluation in South Africa’s controlled areaJohn Grewar, Thibaud Porphyre, Evan Sergeant, Camilla Weyer and Peter Thompson

Uptake of diagnostic tests by livestock farmers: a stochastic game theory approach. S Mohr, R Beard, A Nisbet, S Burgess, R Reeve, M Denwood, T Porphyre, RN. Zadoks, L Matthews

Multilayer network analysis unravels haulage vehicles as a hidden threat to the British swine industry T Porphyre, BMC Bronsvoort, GJ Gunn, Carla Correia-Gomes 

Assessing the Economic Impact of Vaccine Availability When Controlling Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks. T Porphyre, KM Rich, HK Auty

Inferring within‐herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation. C Guinat, T Porphyre, A Gogin, L Dixon, DU Pfeiffer, S Gubbins

Vulnerability of the British swine industry to classical swine fever. T Porphyre, C Correia-Gomes, ME Chase-Topping, K Gamado, HK Auty, I Hutchinson, A Reeves, GJ Gunn, MEJ Woolhouse

Data-Driven Risk Assessment from Small Scale Epidemics: Estimation and Model Choice for Spatio-Temporal Data with Application to a Classical Swine Fever Outbreak. K Gamado, G Marion, T Porphyre

Using national movement databases to help inform responses to swine disease outbreaks in Scotland: the impact of uncertainty around incursion time. T Porphyre, LA Boden, C Correia-Gomes, HK Auty, GJ Gunn, MEJ Woolhouse

How commercial and non-commercial swine producers move pigs in Scotland: a detailed descriptive analysis. T Porphyre, LA Boden, C Correia-Gomes, HK Auty, GJ Gunn, MEJ Woolhouse

The performance of approximations of farm contiguity compared to contiguity defined using detailed geographical information in two sample areas in Scotland: implications for foot-and-mouth disease modelling. JS Flood, T Porphyre, MJ Tildesley, MEJ Woolhouse

Small-scale pig farmers’ behavior, silent release of African swine fever virus and consequences for disease spread. S Costard, FJ Zagmutt, T Porphyre, DU Pfeiffer

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