I am a mathematician working on models for infectious disease transmission and control. I use Bayesian methods to fit disease transmission models to outbreak data. I use simulation to predict future disease spread and the impact of potential disease control measures.
In Topic 4 I am working on methods to analyse disease outbreak data when the spatial distribution of the disease hosts is uncertain or unknown. This situation is quite common, as disease outbreak data typically comprise only a list of cases with associated times and locations. So far, the methods have been tested on simulated data and I am now working on applications to disease scenarios such as the spread of African Swine Fever in the Baltic states. I expect that these methods can open up new datasets for analysis, ultimately allowing us to make full use of available disease outbreak data.
In Topic 2 I am investigating the consequences of uncertainties in individual animal movement histories. Often only a partial record of between-holding animal movements exists, for example in the case of sheep in Scotland moving with EID (electronic identification). Any gaps in the movement record for an individual may have consequences in the event of a disease outbreak, potentially affecting traceability within the animal movement network. I am simulating contact tracing of individual animals under different data collection and management policies, taking into account the uncertainties arising from incomplete information. This approach enables an assessment of the traceability of Scottish livestock under different scenarios and can potentially inform Scottish Government policy.
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