My research interests are in the application of statistical methods in medicine, epidemiology and environmental sciences. I am particularly interested in spatial epidemiology covering the study of spatial patterns of disease risks and taking into account spatial-specific risk factors. I am also interested in time series and multilevel analysis and changes in disease risks through space and time. My PhD in Statistics was completed in 2009 at the University of Glasgow.
As EPIC staff, I worked on the analyses of potential disease control options and risks associated with animal movements. Working with EPIC colleagues, we developed process models for disease transmission using BVD as an exemplar disease. The models analyse within farm disease intensity and classify farms based on the levels of intensity. This may help isolate farms with circulating virus or recent infection. Using time series approach, we developed a framework for estimating indirect costs in Animal Health.
Currently, my work is concentrated in Topic 3 that deals with Improving Veterinary Surveillance Strategy. My work includes the assessment of the utility and potential of existing datasets collected for other purposes, often through voluntary submissions, for livestock health and disease surveillance systems. Such business operational datasets are often incomplete and may be fraught with wide-ranging limitations which may render them unsuitable for disease surveillance systems. Understanding these limitations may guide the development of appropriate operations and methods of analysis that can add value to these data by helping to highlight salient epidemiological information contained in the data. Such epidemiological information can provide outbreak situational awareness or inform retrospective disease outbreak detection. I implemented a variety of outbreak detection algorithms, accounting for known systematic variations in the data. Some of these methods not only detect changes in disease risk at a specified point in time, but also small but sustained shifts in measures of disease risks over time.
Framework for Estimating Indirect Costs in Animal Health Using Time Series Analysis. AS Barratt, KM Rich, JI Eze, T Porphyre, GJ Gunn, AW Stott
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